Monday, May 02, 2005

The Rise of the European Constitution

May has brought us spring and good news on the European Constitution side. The most recent poll says that the majority of French people are now inclined to vote Yes to the Constitution on 29 may.

This is not to say that the No voters have changed their mind. To the contrary, they are fighting more and more intensively; the latest symbolic message from the No camp was sent during the first of may parade, coloured by the opposition to the European Constitution.

What has then turned the tide? The answer lies in the number of ex-undecided people. It appears that those who had not made up their mind yet, have started getting involved in the debate and have chosen to stand with the 'oui'. In particular, this seems to be the case for the voters of the socialist party. Given the fact that the polls have been run before Lionel Jospin's public intervention, it is possible that more undecided socialists will side with the Yes camp in the future.

This news needs to be welcomed as a victory as yet! Not so much for the predicted Yes -this is still very uncertain-- but more because a vast majority of the population is now becoming aware of an important european question. This will have as a result a high turn up in may, which will be a success in itself when compared to the 44% turn out in the spanish referendum in February 2005.

1 comment:

Djalila said...

I am not so sure about the pools Lorenzo is refering to, as in France, where I currently am, I rather read that the "no" was still ahead at 51 per cents and our Dear President Chirac (!) will try to convince us with a new speech tonight after the news...so in twenty minutes!
I send all of you an article and I would be happy to hear your opinions about it, although I'm sorry it's in French.

I have to say that I still don't know if I will vote for yes or no...my opinion still being that there is a change of propects with enlargment (the article explains my view better than I could ever think of it in its first part, the second is very intersting and regards different conceptions of liberties in the EU), and that I am opposed to a Constitution of this shape now...

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-3232,36-645191,0.html