May has brought us spring and good news on the European Constitution side. The most recent poll says that the majority of French people are now inclined to vote Yes to the Constitution on 29 may.
This is not to say that the No voters have changed their mind. To the contrary, they are fighting more and more intensively; the latest symbolic message from the No camp was sent during the first of may parade, coloured by the opposition to the European Constitution.
What has then turned the tide? The answer lies in the number of ex-undecided people. It appears that those who had not made up their mind yet, have started getting involved in the debate and have chosen to stand with the 'oui'. In particular, this seems to be the case for the voters of the socialist party. Given the fact that the polls have been run before Lionel Jospin's public intervention, it is possible that more undecided socialists will side with the Yes camp in the future.
This news needs to be welcomed as a victory as yet! Not so much for the predicted Yes -this is still very uncertain-- but more because a vast majority of the population is now becoming aware of an important european question. This will have as a result a high turn up in may, which will be a success in itself when compared to the 44% turn out in the spanish referendum in February 2005.