Monday, April 10, 2006

Italian Elections: Clear results?

The first predictions show a clear advantage of Prodi's coalition.

But they are only statistical data based on interviews, so there is a margin of error.

Berlusconi's coalition seems to have lost, but it is still unclear whether Prodi will have a clear majority in both the lower chamber (camera) and the higher one (senato). In Italy, the senate is elected by people who are over 25 years old. The camera is elected by those who are over 18 years old.

Another interesting point is that Berlusconi's party has not lost points in relation to other parties within his coalition. This means that Berlusconi's allies will have to struggle a lot to be able to get rid of Berlusconi as the head of that coalition.

Unfortunately, the disastrous electoral law voted by B. and friends brought back Italy to a proportional system without threshold, which is very likely to increase the number of parties and decrease the stability of the system.

All these variables must be taken into account in order to work out whether the majority will be able to guarantee a fair degree of stability and governability.

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