Are Leftists Misguided (and a bit Hypocritical) on Human Rights?

Philip Stephens posed an interesting argument in the Financial Times on Thursday. He posited that leftists in general and European leftists in particular are a bit off the mark when it comes to their criticism of the Bush Administration’s human rights record. His comment came in response to the Human Rights Watch World Report 2006, which, while thorough in its documentation of human rights abuses the world over, began with and emphasized the Bush administration’s poor track record in the “war on terror.” Stephens noted that leftists, especially in Europe, devote so much time to criticizing the Bush administration’s record that they are negligent when it comes to highlighting human rights abuses in the rest of the world. The Bush administration’s record is atrocious and as an American I find it embarrassing. However, Stephens does have a point. I would add that leftists are not always above reproach in their relations to human rights abusers. Angelika Merkel (not a leftist) was fully justified in condemning Guantanamo Bay after her meeting with George Bush. However, the previous (leftist) German government under Gerhard Schroeder (last seen opposing the war in Iraq and striking a blow for leftists and anti-militarists everywhere) and the Social Democrats was almost unseemly in its scramble to establish “strategic partnerships” with two major human rights abusers, Russia and China, in order to sell weapons to the latter and buy energy from the former. In addition, Schroeder’s new job as a supervisory board chairman for an energy company partly funded by Gazprom, the state-owned Russian energy company, did not exactly strike a blow for leftist idealism. Surely he could have gotten a gig with Bono and Bob Geldorf instead….What is more, Labour MPs in the United Kingdom should spend less time scoring political points on Tony Blair for his policy of partnership with the United States and more time supporting Blair’s admirable attempt to spotlight Africa, where human rights abuses abound. As for the French, where even the Conservatives are leftist (comparatively speaking), they could commit at least a bit of the time they spend America-bashing to some self-reflection on their government and industry’s friendly relationship with Saddam Hussein’s regime in the 1990’s. How about one or two fewer headlines in the Guardian and The Independent about the U.S. in Iraq and one or two more about prison camps in China or dissidents in Cuba. Now, this is not to urge leftists to hold their tongues. By all means, the Bush administration deserves the criticism it gets for its human rights record. However, American foreign policy, poor as it has been for the last few years, is not the epicenter of human rights violations in the world, and should not be treated as such. When American foreign policy becomes the focus of human rights campaigners it shifts our attention from the myriad of human rights problems elsewhere, many of which rarely see the light of day.

Baseball, Cuba, and the War on Communism

Are we still fighting a "War on Communism"? Obviously, U.S. foreign policy is a bit convoluted on this subject. Ties with China grow ever closer and the "War on Terror" has clearly superseded concerns over communism. All that doesn't mean, however, that the U.S. doesn't have substantial economic sanctions aimed at our communist neighbor to the south.

U.S. sanctions against Cuba prohibit any U.S. person, wherever located, to engage in a transaction with a Cuban national or deal in goods in which a Cuban national has an interest. In theory these sanctions are so strict that a McDonald's in Paris would be prohibited from selling a hamburger to a Cuban national in Paris on vacation.

In reality, however...things often work much differently.

The U.S. Treasury Department recently gave approval for a "specific license" enabling Cuba to play in the World Baseball Classic to be played in March of this year!

Obviously, this is exciting for baseball fans because a "World Cup" of baseball actually requires ALL major players in the sport to be able to participate. Somehow, a WBC with Chinese Tapei and lacking Cuba would seem a bit empty.

I should note that even with the U.S. possessing an amazing roster of talent. It seems likely that the Dominican Republic will walk away as the winners (Manny, Ortiz, Pedro, Pujols, Tejada, Colon!) but every baseball fan has a lot to look forward to this March no matter who their team is!

Just because you're paranoid...

A number of people, including one Republican ex-Congressman James Rogan, have resigned from the advisory board of an alumni group of the University of California, Los Angeles, due to revelations that the group were effectively offering bribes to students to gain evidence to expose lecturers advancing "liberal" viewpoints in their teachings. Amazing: the spirit of McCarthy lives on.

This has been echoed by Noam Chomsky in a recent interview in the autumn 2005 issue of Thought and Action. Of course, one does not normally expect from that author a balanced, even-handed account of anything, his myriad other important talents notwithstanding; however, the stream of stories and anecdotes, like the one above, do combine to lend real credence to the claims that he and many others make.

I, like, perhaps, many others in Europe, still find these claims difficult to fully comprehend, so outlandish are they; it is only really those directly involved in the US university system that can really pass judgment on the current situation there. To what extent, then, do these worrying allegations represent a real and widespread practice?

All comments welcome; although we should, perhaps, re-enable anonymous posting on the blog. Just in case...

European Constitutionalism Reloaded

Srdjan raises an interesting point on the need to reform EU institution to be able to enlarge to other countries (Bulgaria and Roumania already have green light). I agree with this point, and I believe that few think that we can keep enlarging without institutional change (unless they militate for an implosion of the EU).

Euan, however, contends that we have to drop the discourse of constitutionalism, or at least we have to distinguish it from institutional reform.

I wonder. It really depends on how we understand the notion of European Constitution. I, for example, think that a material european constitution exists since long time (Cf Weiler, The Constitution of Europe, CUP). Within this framework, whenever we think about serious institutional changes, we also modify the constitutional framework.

Euan is probably thinking about a more formal, and symbolic, notion of Constitution that ultimately refers to the Constitutional Treaty. From this viewpoint, we can of course distinguish institutional changes from constitutional ones. The reason is that we do not need a constitutional treaty to change institutions that have always been modified by treaty. Fine.

But then again, there is a different problem with Euan's view of the enlargement. Euan seems to suggest that enlargement does not have anything to do with constitutionalism. Not true. Enlargemenent is supported by many Euro-minimalist, in particular British, who would want to see a very large market without any other political aspiration. Thus, if you do not associate the political discourse of constitutionalism with enlargement, the risk is to adopt a defaul interpretation of enlargement that goes back to euro-minimalism.

In my mind, enlargement and constitutionalism go hand in hand. Whether they necessitate the constitutional treaty rejected in France and Holland, is another story.

European Constitution: 2nd time around

During the period preceding the French referendum on the European Constitution some of us warned that voting against the Constitution might strengthen the forces which are opposing further enlargement of the Union. Quentin Peel, in an Financial Times comment 18^th January 2006, argues,

“Whether you call it a constitution or not, changes in the EU system of governance are essential to enable the union to accept any new member states beyond the two – Bulgaria and Romania – that have already been given the green light. Without reform, forget membership for Croatia or any other part of former Yugoslavia. Forget about Turkey and Ukraine. An EU of 27 states will be the end of the road.”

At present, Peel suggest quoting the December 2005 Eurobarometer, 49% of the Europeans support renegotiating the constitution, 22% prefer simply continuing with the present ratification procedure, while 13% prefer the Constitution to be killed. There is space for hope…in order to fulfil its integration promise to the Balkans, The European Union needs to adopt a new constitutional structure in one way ore another. Otherwise it risks a general deterioration of the political and economic situation in this region, a move that in the long run, goes directly against the interests of the European Union as a whole and most of the Member States. The Thessalonica European Council Promise to the Western Balkans must be fulfilled, EU must proceed with the enlargement.

What are the chances of proceeding with the work on the European Constitution, Peel mentions the proposal coming from the French Minister and UMP Leader Sarkozy,

“Mr Sarkozy’s proposal is for renegotiation of the constitution to reduce the reforms to an essential core of rules (in the present part I), and a charter of rights (part II). All the detailed regulations in part III, giving effect to the single market and free movement of labour, capital, goods and services (the bits that most alarmed French voters), would be hived off into a separate text. Then, he argues, there really would not be any need for another French referendum: ratification could be done by the national assembly.”

De Menezes report sent to Crown Prosecution Service

The latest on the London tube shooting, in which Brazilian national Jean Charles de Menezes was shot seven times in the head by UK police forces in the mistaken belief that he was a suicide bomber (see my previous posts here and here). The body responsible for investigating his death, the Independent Police Complaints Commission, has today decided to send its report to the Crown Prosecution Service, indicating that, in its belief, their may well be grounds for criminal charges arising from the incident. If the leaks that have come out from that report are accurate (see my post here), then this is hardly surprising. It may take some for the CPS to decide whether to press charges against any of the officers involved, but this is another step in the right direction, towards accountability for this most spectacular of policing failures.

Italy and the New Central Bank

The new president of the central bank, Mario Draghi, starts his job today.
He will be responsible for the future of the central bank in Italy.
You find an interesting overview here

An excerpt:

'Above all, Mr Draghi is seen as the authoritative, well-respected figure who will have to restore an atmosphere of serenity after the recent stormy incidents that have left an unpleasant aftertaste. “Ethics and decency infringed again” is the beginning of a letter sent a few days ago to the director general and acting governor, Vincenzo Desario, by Angelo Marasi. In it, the FABI bank trade union secretary asked for clarification as to why Mr Fazio had been given an office, with secretary and bank car, on the first floor of Villa Huffer, where the notorious painting of Saint Sebastian that hung behind his desk in Palazzo Koch will be placed, along with two safes the former governor is believed to have requested. The decision has created ill feeling among workers in the offices opposite Palazzo Koch, who are reported to have been invited not to use the stairs. So as not to disturb Mr Fazio.'

French Job Market: A Revolution?

France launches a program which is meant to revolutionize the job market.

So many times before, we stressed that necessity on this blog. Now, we'll have to see what will be the effects of that reform.

Any views on this reform are highly welcome!

Of Missile Attacks and Democracy

According to media reports, late last week American Predator unmanned planes launched missiles at a Pakistani village in an attempt to kill al-Qaeda’s second-in-command, Ayman Zawahiri. American intelligence was mistaken and Zawahiri was not present at the time of the attack, which killed at least 17 people (at least some of whom were probably foreign militants involved in destabilizing Afghanistan). The attacks prompted an official protest from President Musharraf’s government and protests across Pakistan. As far as I can tell, commentators are ignoring a big storyline here, as seen from the American perspective. That is, what should be done about America’s relationship with the Pakistani government? This also prompts questions about America’s relationship with other authoritarian governments in the Islamic world. I will begin, however, with Pakistan. To summarize: then-General Musharraf staged a coup in 1999 and has been in power ever since; American policy makers (in both parties) consider him an important ally in the “war on terror” as he supported the war in Afghanistan and has made Pakistan a less welcoming environment for al-Qaeda and its associates than it otherwise would have been. In return, the Bush administration has been one of Musharraf’s few allies. They have provided moral and monetary support and excluded him from the list of places where, as President Bush is fond of saying, “Freedom is (or at least should be) on the march.” However, this relationship between the American and Pakistani governments obscures the fact, at least from Americans, that Pakistan is a troubled country. Islamic fundamentalism is endemic, fuelled by a non-democratic government, a weak economy and a poor educational system. Many boys are educated (female school attendance rates are low) in madrasas, where curriculum consists of studying the Koran. As in other places in the Islamic world, like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, anti-Americanism is fuelled largely by American support for an unpopular, unrepresentative government. (The other big issue is, of course, unqualified America support for Israel). This is a recurring problem that American policy-makers have generally ignored. The Bush administration, to their credit, has begun to nudge the Egyptians in a more democratic direction, albeit rather weakly. However, it has been largely silent on democratic shortcomings in other countries it considers strategic allies, like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. A vital aspect of combating Islamic terrorism is to improve America’s image in the Islamic world. The Bush administration acknowledges this and has spent a fair amount of money and time on public relation campaigns. This is ridiculous. A better approach would be to lend genuine support to democratization efforts in these countries. Critics might argue that this could well lead to free elections and bring extreme anti-American elements to power. However, genuine democratic processes will surely soften extremism in these countries. And if America helps bring about free and fair elections in Pakistan, does it not seem likely that Pakistanis will look upon America with a kinder eye?

Le Monde against Chirac

Le Monde asked President Chirac to leave in a brilliant article which you can read here (if you read french of course).

The main point, which I totally agree with, concerns the distruction of inter-generational solidarity. France is presently funding its welfare system by imposing future debts on young people! Welfare state without economic growth is a suicide pact with the devil.

Chirac represents all in all a 'demode' view of politics. HE HAS TO LEAVE and allow France to change direction now.

Amnesty plans for Northern Ireland fugitives scrapped

Some time ago, I posted on the UK Government's plans to introduce what were effectively amnesties for those on the run who were accused of crimes committed prior to the signing of the Good Friday Agreement (introduced somewhat clumsily at on the same day as the attempt to force through the 90-day detention plan for others suspected of terrorism). This scheme would have meant that those involved went before special tribunals in order to have their guilt decided, and, if found guilty, they would then be released on licence, in a manner similar to those who have been freed from prison during the peace process. Earlier this week, the Government chose to shelve those plans.

The scheme had attracted almost universal criticism - not least because the accused would not be compelled to face their victims in the special tribunals. However, the Government seemed determined to press on until even Sinn Fein, the (erstwhile?) militant republican party, decided to oppose it - on the grounds that they found it unacceptable that those who had been members of the Security Forces would also benefit from the protection that they sought for their allies. At the time, I supported the Government's decision to introduce the bill; likewise, now, I feel that they had little choice but to withdraw it.

As the Secretary of State Peter Hain noted in his statement to Parliament, the situation of those on the run for crimes for which they would have been released under the Good Friday Agreement represents an anomoly that will have to be dealt with before the peace process can be brought to a close. He is also correct, I think, in noting that "it is regrettable that Northern Ireland is not yet ready to do so". The real shame of this episode is not that the Government was forced into a u-turn, or that fugitives won't get their amnesties: it is what this failure says about the current state of the peace process itself. It is as if things have gone, and continue to go, backwards: as the Guardian notes, it would have been far easier to get this Bill through in 2001 than it has proved in 2006. And we are not yet aware of all of the potential repercussions: the pledge to introduce a Bill on fugitives was a key part of the negotiating positions that led to the IRA's decision to end its armed struggle and comply with the decomissioning requirements of the Agreement; it will be interesting to see what happens now that these plans have been shelved. All eyes are now on the devolved government in Stormont, and the power-sharing executive. If these are not fully operational by the time of the next scheduled elections in 2007, things will look very bleak indeed.

ONE YEAR AFTER THE SMOKING BAN IN ITALY

Italy is celebrating the first anniversary of the smoking ban in public places. Going beyond initial (legitimate) disagreement on the desirability of the ban, the government enacted a set of measures which proved to be enormously successfull. Beside first hand experience of the actual improvements, now evidence is provided as to the positive effects of the ban (read here for a report).

Smoking not only harms people who smoke, but also people who do not smoke, as for example bar tenders or other clients. The prevention of the harm to others is a good reason enough for accepting the liberal nature of such a measure (some argue that a ban is a paternalist intervention, not justified within the paradigms of a liberal state).

As far as institutional solutions are concerned, I think that Italian law is probably the best law on this topic; it provides the possibility of creating separate rooms for smokers. This goes with few conditions: effective separation and appropriate ventilation systems. Yet, the main aim is limit the incentives for smokers to smoke in public, and possibly to smoke in generally.

One year after, cigarettes sale has decreased of 5.7%. This simple figure tells much more than any other word.

It is a pity that in other countries, such as England, leaders are not brave enough to do the right thing. Tony Blair is alerted: if he's not even able to carry forward such a simple, but so beneficial, reform, then it means that his time has gone.

Zapatero’s Progressive populism

The Spanish Government announced the enactment of a new law that will allow granting of political asylum in Spain to victims of sexual discrimination (homosexuals). If this governmental bill becomes legally binding, and it most probably will , homosexuals from Cuba, for example, could come to Spain realistically hoping to be granted asylum.

There are several objections one could raise against such a governmental proposal.

First, it can be argued that granting asylum right to homosexuals who are victims of sexual persecution stretches the definition of the right of asylum to the point where one can justifiably ask, if granting such a right to homosexuals then why not to economic migrants (I personally think, in terms of principle, both deserve protection and should be granted the right to enter and reside within the EU, within the framework of asylum protection or liberalizing immigration policies, same difference). Zapatero’s government allows Cuban homosexuals in (despite the fact that their situation, although not good, by no means resembles past discriminatory policies of the Castro regime in the past) while it does nothing concrete to facilitate African immigration to Spain. Why is someone who is dying from hunger in a better position then a persecuted homosexual it is very hard to tell? Economic migrants are victims of social discrimination (one could even say in most of the cases victims of colonial discrimination) and European governments should finally tackle the issue of immigration in an appropriate manner and not engage in humanitarian populism by means of asylum protection.

This brings us to the more general critique of Zapatero’s policies. At the beginning of his government, after the Madrid terrorist attacks, Zapatero wanted to give an ideological framework to his brand of left-wing politics…together with a famous Irish-Australian Professor Philip Petit he designated an ideological guidelines of his future government. Petit’s Republicanism presents this ideology. It is an attempt to place the left-wing political agenda within the realities of the world in which comprehensive welfare state of the old, post second world war style is judged no longer possible, to an extent, very progressive approach towards social policies is to be offered as an antidote to what can essentially be branded as economic neo-liberalism.

To simplify, Zapatero seems to think: if we cannot offer the population welfare protection, we offer them the right of homosexuals to get married and to adopt children. But, does the majority of the population care about this and does it significantly meet their expectations about life? While, my intention is certainly not to criticize policies which I in principle support (homosexual rights) because they go in the direction of creating a genuinely open society, I am critical towards policies where e.g. extensive gay rights are used as an antidote to the inability to pursue genuinely left-wing policies…such as fighting for more social equalities for the overall population. One can justifiable be worried about the long-term effects of such policies. Doesn’t such progressive populism just contribute to the trend where vast portions of the ex-left wing (working class electorate) shift towards radical populist right, that on the other hand fills the gap current European left is not able to fill, that of welfare protection. Le Pen pehnomenon is a worrying sign of that trend. Of course radical right does not offer sound alternative in terms of policies but social and economic populism, but doesn’t Zapatero do the same in a more sophisticated manner?

Sick Leaders, Sick Politics

Dick Cheney, Ariel Sharon, Jaques Chirac; these are only three examples of sick leaders around the world.

Sickness can also be read as a metaphor for present global politics. There are no leaders anymore, and those who are there are slowly disappearing in a natural or in an induced way.

Hopefully 2006 will see a brand new era of politics and leadership.

Good News From ITALY!

The Italian Central Bank has a new President, Mario Draghi.
Draghi is a world class economist, former Harvard Professor and present Vice-President of Goldman Sachs. He's widely appreciated and well beyond petty political disputes.

In a difficult moment for Italy, this nomination comes as a breath of fresh air. The aim was to give a stong signal of credibility to the international community. I believe that that objective has been reached.

My only regret is that this kind of choices in the INTEREST of the whole country are very rare and happen only under circumstances of very heavy crisis.

Italy has first class people, and it is a first class country. Let's hope that our politicies be dictated by the superior interest of the country, independently from the political colour of the government.

Christmas 2006 and the New Global Order

In his Christmas speech, Pope Benedict XVI, once again raised some interesting points that make many observers reconsider their position towards “Conservative” Cardinal Ratzinger. The Pope once again invoked the conclusions of the II Vatican Council in the most positive manner. In this way the Pope gave those who doubt that he is in fact a hidden reformer (by no means “merely the Administrator” of The previous Pope) a reason to believe that they are in fact right.

In his speech the Pope continued with the line of the Church aspiring to play the role of the counterweight to the ruthless globalization and spiritless technological development. The pope said that the “technological man is risking spiritual atrophy” and that the “new global order” should be founded on a more just economic system. Moreover, the Pope argued that we should take more care of the way in which we use the natural resources of our planet since the way in which we progress with the technological development can put into question its very existence.

All these points seem valid from the point of view of those who are concerned by the way in which we manage the processes of globalization and technological development. The question to be raised, however, is whether the very dogma of Christianity (and the ways in which we interpret it) has the appropriate structure to play the role of the critical corrective to the very idea of Progress.

It can be argued that there is an incremental link between Christianity, the hope of salvation, and the belief in Progress as an immanently positive occurrence. In her novel, “Hadrian's Memoirs” Marguerite Yourcenar, or better Emperor Hadrian, argues, “every man during his brief life faces an eternal choice between tireless hope and wise absence of hope…”, while Hadrian opts for the later, Christianity opts for the first. “Tireless hope”, is something Christianity and Ideology of Progress have in common. While, of course, “tireless hope” can be interpreted in a different manner, as to produce different political choices, it is legitimate to ask whether we need a wholly new foundational philosophy (instead of Christianity) to use as a base for a “new global order”?

Merry Christmas to all those who celebrate Christmas according to the Gregorian Calendary.

Hristos Se Rodi, for 7th of January 2006, when I, and most of the Orthodox Serbs, Celebrate Christmas.

Happy Holidays!

Happy Holidays dear readers. We'll have a break too, but we will be back at the beginning of 2006!

UK troops in Iraq bound by Human Rights Act

The UK Court of Appeal has ruled that Iraqi detainees fall under the protection of the Human Rights Act - including the right to freedom from torture or other degreading treatment - from the moment they are arrested by British, extending a previous ruling which had held this to be the case only when they are actually in a British-controlled prison. One Judge even proposed that there were good grounds to suggest that the duty under the Act to protect certain fundamental rights, particularly the right to life, should be understood as extending to streets patrolled by British troops. The case in question concerned the death of Baha Mousa, an Iraqi hotel receptionist who died after being arrested by UK forces. 5 other cases of death allegedly caused bythem were held not to fall under the Human Rights Act.

One passage worthy of note, from Lord Justice Brooke, on the right to life in areas under the control of British troops: "It could be difficult for a European government to decide to pursue policies that treated human life as more readily expendable just because those whom their forces kill are not themselves European".

This decision, then, sorts out some potentially thorny jurisdictional issues in terms of the UK occupation of Southern Iraq. It doesn't, I don't think, impose any new obligations on the soldiers involved - the right to life and freedom from torture are already protected under international law - but by opening up a clear path for redress of such actions through the domestic, rather than military, courts, it will hopefully ensure that the troops and their leaders will be more inclined to actually pay attention to them. Nothing concentrates the mind like the prospect of genuine accountablity through enforceability.

It may be worth just noting, however, that, if one of the arguments made quite powerfully in the Pinochet case is accepted, namely that customary international law is properly regarded as forming part of the common law of England, then there would have been valid jurisdictional avenues open in any event: few would today suggest that the prohibition on torture, for example, did not form part of customary international law - and certainly not, it would seem, the House of Lords. Still, in extending the scope of the Human Rights Act in this manner, the Appeal Court has ensured that such potentially controversial solutions remain academic.

Legal blow for Flying Spaghetti Monsterism

The Pennsylvania Academic Standards require students to learn about Darwin's Theory of Evolution and eventually to take a standardized test of which evolution is a part.

Because Darwin's Theory is a theory, it continues to be tested as new evidence is discovered. The theory is not a fact. Gaps in the theory exist for which there is no evidence. A theory is defined as a well-tested explanation that unifies a braod range of observations.

Intelligent Design is an explanation of the origins of life that differs from Darwin's view. The reference book, Of Pandas and People, is available for students who might be interested in gaining an understanding of what intelligent design actually involves.

With respect to any theory, students are encouraged to keep an open mind. The school leaves the discussion of the Origins of Life to individuals students and their families. As a Standards-driven district, class instruction focuses upon preparing students to achieve proficiency on Standards-based assessments.

A District Federal Judge in the US has ruled that this curiously-capitalised attempt to sneak in a mention of intelligent design, the viewpoint that opposes Darwinism by claiming that only the existence of a supreme being can account for the variety of life on earth, into the teaching of science in public schools violates the Constitution, in particular the "no establishment" clause of the first ammendment. Intelligent design, like creationism before it, has thus been found to have no place within a secular science curriculum, despite both Bush and Blair suggesting to the contrary.

The debate on this issue has been, and remains, fairly heated; and we can be sure that this most recent development will be greeted with outpourings of both delight and disgust, in equally spectacular terms: see, for example, Brian Leiter's post on this topic, entitled "Federal Judge hands the Pennsylvania Taliban a Stinging defeat" (although it does seem true that the judge himself pulled no punches in his criticism of the school board from Dover, Pennsylvania).

What is clear is that it is a zero tolerance approach that has been adopted by this decision. The school board's policy may have appeared innocuous enough - requiring teachers to read out the brief, four paragraph passage before proceeding to teach Darwinism, which, in itself, seems to have relatively little objectionable about it. The passage stated that Darwinism is "only" a theory in which gaps exist, mention intelligent design as an alternative, and suggest some further reading for those interested. The judge decided, however, that this was a thinly-veiled attempt to reintroduce religion into the science classroom, thus borrowing for the former some of the prestige accorded to the latter. He did not belittle the bona fides of the beliefs of those proposing it (although he did suggest that they had been less than honest about their motives for doing so), but rather insisted that the "theory" had no scientific basis at all, certainly not enough to justify inclusion of even a mention of it in a class about Darwinism.

Anyway, an important case, even for those of us who know little or less about the actual substance of the science involved; more detail on it here, here, here and here.

Oh, and for anyone a little confused by my title, see here and here. I can only expect that this decision will hold also in this regard...

Public Opinion and Iraq Part 3

Recently, in order to revive his flagging poll numbers, especially regarding his Iraq policy, President Bush has given a series of five speeches aimed at convincing the American public that he has a clear plan for victory in Iraq. At first glance one might conclude his effort succeeded. The latest Washington Post-ABC News and CNN/USA Today Gallup polls show a modest increase in his approval rating. However, with closer scrutiny of the poll data and a bit of context it emerges that Bush’s public opinion problems, at least vis-à-vis Iraq, have not really changed. As I noted in a December 5 post, Bush’s most recent public opinion strategy (based on advice from Duke University political scientist Peter Feaver) for Iraq has been to convince Americans that he has a plan that will lead to success, in the belief that Americans are willing to support significant American casualties as long as they expect victory. Encouragingly for the President, the approval rating for his Iraq policy jumped ten percent and a majority of Americans (56 percent) once again support his handling of the “war on terror.” Also, according to the Washington Post, sixty percent said the United States is making significant progress in restoring civil order in Iraq and 65 percent said the United States is making significant progress in establishing a democratic government there. However, these poll numbers need to be put in the context of an apparently successful election last week. Bush has seen similar poll bounces in the past, like after the capture of Saddam Hussein, and they have generally proven temporary. Unless the insurgency falters significantly, and there is no such indication, these positive numbers will slump. Most discouraging for Bush, almost 60 percent of Americans do not believe he has a clear plan for success in Iraq, signalling that his public relations campaign has been ineffective. The President had better hope that Dr. Feaver’s “plan for victory” thesis is flawed. Otherwise, he will continue to suffer from weak public support for his Iraq policy. This will force him to begin withdrawing American troops in significant numbers soon, a move he is loathe to make.

The President of the Italian Central Bank leaves

It looks as if Fazio, the president of the Italian Central Bank, read my previous post and made up his mind:
he has finally resigned.

It is not an easy situation for Italy, but something needed to change. Fazio goes, now we have to find who comes in its place.

The Unbearable Lightness of Being an Official in Italy

In 'normal' countries, institutions abide by certain rules of fairness: a politician must be able to show that his private interest does not overlap with his public function. Moreover, when a representative of an institution lacks public legitimacy to the point of being attacked by the majority and the minority of the country in equal measure, that person gives up his position.

In Italy, it is the other way round. The prime minister has an overt and unforgivable conflict of interest. And the president of the central bank, Anotnio Fazio, lacks legitimacy on every front. But he does not want to quit.

This is the scenario in Italy, 4 months before general elections.

EU and WTO: Double Failure

The deals reached in Brussels and Hong Kong simply do not go far enough.

The EU needed a strong sign of the willingness of reform. It only displayed the orthodox national positions; a meagre deal has been reached in order to meet the promises made to Easter Countries. But more than this is required from Europe. We need a more courageous Europe; what we have now is a mammoth struggling for its survival, and barely delivering on its promises.

More importantly, Europe's failure to change affects many other countries in the world. So while we 'enjoy' our relative well-being, unable to break away from the past, a continent like Africa perceives stagnation in Europe as a condemnation. We are not sending any positive signal as to our willingness of giving up our protective agricultural policy in order to create room for African agriculture.

And Asia feels pretty much the same, as we witnessed in Hong Kong. Western protectionism drags them down, but we have no response to that. Shame! Mandelson argued that the deal in Hong Kong was 'acceptable.' It is acceptable for Europe, maybe. As we are in a situation in which we only want to postpone hard questions!

But it is not acceptable for those who are on the brink of disaster. OUR IMMOBILITY is detrimental to us, but dramatic to others. As a wealthy and rich congregation of happy nations, we have to do more. We have to go further.

The deals in Brussels and Hong Kong are a failure from this perspective

The EU Budget Dilemma

In order to frame the current debate on the EU budget, I copy and paste below one of our Supranationalist Papers (N.2) on the EU Budget.

If you want to know more about Supranationalist Papers, please click here.


Concerning the European Budget

To the people of Europe:

The European Budget is very small (100 million euros annualy for 450 million citizens), and yet it raises so much controversy these days. The most simple explanation is that money is the meter of power relations in Europe. As far as money are concerned, there is little political compromise that can cover a defeat at the budgetary level: if you had 5 and you end up with 3, there is no clearer defeat.

Each member state thinks this way, thus it is particularly difficult to reach an agreeement. This is particularly the case when a conflict is taking place at the level of principles of organisation of a polity; to translate the conflict in economic terms is very easy, and it gives a neat impression as to who is the winner and who is the loser.

From the perspective of the Union, however, everyone is a loser if there is no agreement as to the repartition of the ressources for the sake of enhancing the progress of the whole. Hence, the conflict, be it between France and the UK, or between any other member state, is not a constructive tension; it can only point to a lack of a shared interest in the European project. Moreover, the European people fail to understand what are the principles of collection and expense of european money.

These tensions are bound to remain so long that the only actor in the creation of ressources of the Union are member states. By deciding alone what are the ressources to be attributed to the Union, they can only protect their national intersts, either by opposing any increase of ressources, or by allowing an increase only if this will be allocated to the benefit of national interests.

We are presently stuck with an anachronistic budget, which unduly favours States like France by heavily subsidizing agriculture.

A proper constitution should achieve two things. It should entrench the principle of no taxation without representation, and it should allow for a scope of innovation as far as expenses are concerned, since Europe is in a desperate need for the creation of new employments and not in the maintaning of archaic agricultural structures.

The first principle, no taxation without representation, create a link between european people and the creation of ressources at the european level. This way, the issue of money would not be a private question of national governments that decide those issues in the shadows, but it would be a open issue which concern the people and their representative ( at the European Parliament for instance).

The second principle, innovation in expenses, would carve out for the Union the power to allocate money where money are primarily needed. It is widely felt at the moment that, for example, european unemployment is plaguing citizens; it is, therefore, of very little advantage to know that agricultural expenses can be safeguarded at their very high level. Primacy should be given to more important issues, and where primacy lies should be, once again, decided by the representative of the people along with the representative of the executives of the states.

Hamilton, in the Federalist No. 30, said:

"Money is, with propriety, considered as the vital principle of the body politic; as that which sustains its life and motion, and enables it to perform its most essential functions. A complete power, therefore, to procure a regular and adequate supply of it, as far as the resources of the community will permit, may be regarded as an indispensable ingredient in every constitution. From a deficiency in this particular, one of two evils must ensue; either the people must be subjected to continual plunder, as a substitute for a more eligible mode of supplying the public wants, or the government must sink into a fatal atrophy, and, in a short course of time, perish."

Being unable to reach an agreement concerning the budget, the Union declared its weakness vis-a-vis political crisis. Even if it did manage to reach a compromise, however, it is not evident whether the citizens will be the beneficiary of that agreement. This can only be safeguarded by creating a direct control of the people over the expenses of the Union, that is by empowering the representatives of the European people to decide the allocation of expenses.

54 Green Heroes to Save the Planet

The French magazine Courrier International has created 54 profiles of what they call “54 heroes to save the planet”. On the basis of play card with pictures and names of most wanted members of Iraqi regime that are in circulation in Iraq they have created 54 play card of most important ecological activists. French peasant leader Jose Bove and the Indian writer Arundhati Roy represent jokers. Go here to see and download these cards.

European Legal Theory!

European Legal Theiry and Constitutionalism is probably the most exciting intellectual discipline nowadays. The many dilemmas revolving around European integration and European future have sparked an icredible mass of high quality literature.

To have an overview of this literature, have a look at the new issue of the Oxford Journal of Legal Studies. That issue published on-line today, contains a good review of Legal Theory and the European Union by Neil Walker. This issue, by the way, celebrates the 25th anniversary of the Oxford Journal.

This is a good occasion to reiterate the committment of this Blog to follow the most exciting legal and philosophical issues in America, in Europe and Beyond!!

Northern Ireland case and the sources of justice

Recently there has been a lively debate as to the decree to grant the effective amnesty to IRA terrorists still at large was morally correct. The Guardian presents strong cases against the reasoning behind this agreement that suggests, according to the Northern Ireland minister David Hanson, "Sometimes it is necessary to make difficult decisions in the interests of entrenching the benefits of peace." See Euan’s post on this. This brings us back to the question also relevant in the context of the International Criminal law (see) as to whether one should give priority to Kant’s universalist moral reasoning suggesting that there is such a thing as a universal law commonly accepted and that such a law should be respected. My, one could argue although it requires strong imprecision, post-modernist kind of morality, remains reluctant to accept such an ethical argument without reservations, and remains open to ethical arguments suggesting that justice should always take into account the political context to which it applies, emotions and the balance of force. I am not so negative towards accepting the idea of justice as we go along. Yet, as far as the Northern Irish case is concerned one has to have a particular political context in mind in order to reach a final judgement on this: did peace really require granting de facto amnesty to terrorists and does such a solution create sources of social instability for the future?

Disagreement over Europe in the Conservative Party

Ken Clarke is not happy with Cameron's position on Europe. Clarke fears that Cameron could become the most euro-sceptic of all the previous candidate.

Clarke argues that such a position would not sell well internationally.

No need to worry, anyhow. Even if the British public welcomes Cameron as a new Tony Blair, as soon as he will outline his political ideas, he will collapse as many predecessors, as already stated in a previous post.

The European Budget

The problem is not so much the British rebate, but the Common Agricultural Policy.
Tony Blair is dead right to insist on this point.

It is incredible that all attention is on the UK at this moment, and not on countries like France.

The ultimate aim of a budget reform is to help new comers; so why shouldn't both Britain and France make an effort towards this contribution.

My further impression is that Tony Blair has lost even the support of his national press.

At the end of this week, we should know more about the future of the budget...

Europe needs courageous choices to step forward. Let's see

Law professors are the main political opposition to the State of Urgency in France

Three weeks ago, the State of Urgency, declared by the French President after the riots which had begun a few days before, was extended by a bill in Parliament until 2006. This measure, although popular according to the public opinion polls, seemed unnecessary in the light of the situation at the time. It might have been strictly a demonstration of power on the part of the Government to make it clear to every one that they mean business.

In France, judicial review on the constitutionality of legislation is exercised when 60 members of one of the chambers of Parliament request that the Constitutional Council examine a bill before it has been promulgated. Since the bills are voted by the majority, we rely strictly on the political minority in Parliament to activate this mechanism.

Is the French Socialist Party still part of the political minority? Yes, but a rather invisible one. One that certainly doesn’t deserve to be called “opposition”. When this bill on the State of Urgency was voted, the socialists didn’t request the Constitutional Court’s intervention. They feared that it would be unwise, politically, to provoke a decision that could strike down a popular bill. What a bunch of cowards. As if any political party ever became, or stayed, popular by showing a complete lack of conviction.

Once again, as during the debate around the European Constitution, the Socialist party failed to represent a large number of the leftist population (although it was a completely different matter then as it was not a decision taken out of fear but conviction) and exactly as had occurred in the spring, members of civil society had to step up and replace this impotent bunch. A group of law Professors, led by Frédéric Rolin, tried yesterday, to obtain another jurisdiction to request that this outrageous State of Urgency be abandoned. It will surely fail for several reasons, one of which could be that lack of support from the political minority (some communist and green MPs wanted to request the Constitutional Council's intervention but without the socialists they weren't enough).

All in all there is good and bad news. The bad news is the sorry state the major leftist party is in. The good news is the willingness of citizens to become directly - without the mediation of political parties - important actors in the main political battles.

To offer or not to offer

Currently Serbia is entering negotiations with the Albanians form the autonomous Province of Kosovo on the future status of the Province. While the Albanians insist on nothing but independence, Serbia offers “the greatest autonomy in the world”, as the Serbian president Tadic stated yesterday in Brussels. Is Serbia really ready to grant Kosovo independence, but for now simply follows the maxim of the Israeli ex-Prime Minister Peres who says, referring to negotiating process with the Palestinians, that in negotiations first rule is never to offer. How far are Albanians ready to go versus compromise, are they ready to agree to conditional independence, partition etc? Both sides in this way, possibly strengthen their negotiating positions, however, as my Albanian friend from Kosovo noted last night when we were out for beer, in this way you create expectations among your population which are not realistic, for the Albanians that Kosovo will become independent tomorrow, for the Serbs that it will remain a part of Serbia’s full sovereignty.

The House of Lords on Terrorism!

Evidence obtained by Torture cannot be used against terror suspects.
This is the main point of the decision of the House of Lords, just published. You can find the decision here.

The House of Lords reached the decision by Unanimity in this extrimely delicate issue. This is particularly astounding, given the conservative views of some of its members. Read in particular Lord Bingham's opinion.

Amazing decision, it will cause a lot of debates. No doubt!

Pinter's Nobel Speech

The British playwright, Harold Pinter, has used his Nobel speech to launch a powerful attack on US foreign policy. It is certainly worth reading; although Pinter's own use of his formidable rhetorical arsenal to criticise the same in George Bush is likely to have all those not already sympathetic to his views dismiss them as "just another Pinter rant". Most striking for me, however, is the radical separation that he insists upon between truth in art - "there never is any such thing as one truth to be found in dramatic art. There are many. These truths challenge each other, recoil from each other, reflect each other, ignore each other, tease each other, are blind to each other" - and truth in politics, in which "objectivity is essential". He therefore stands by his 1958 claim that "There are no hard distinctions between what is real and what is unreal, nor between what is true and what is false. A thing is not necessarily either true or false; it can be both true and false" only for dramatic art; as a citizen, he says, he, like all others, must ask: "What is true? What is false?"

This position - and it is reflected in the black and white certainty with which Pinter presents the recent history of American foreign policy - makes me deeply uncomfortable. I see know reason why the complex and ambiguous truths of art are not mirrored (or, perhaps better, do not themselves mirror) the complex and ambiguous truths of ethical and political value and action. That the invasion of Iraq was both illegal and immoral seems to me, as Pinter asserts, "true"; however, there is also much truth in the assertion that to do nothing about a brutal dictator is also illegal and immoral. Pinter, like so many of the war's more vociferous critics, simply does not address the second point (except to note, absolutely correctly, that acceptance of it does not compel us in any way to support the action that was finally taken. To do so would represent a species of the faulty logic that the classic British comedy Yes, Prime Minister referred to as the "politicians fallacy" - "Something must be done; this is something, ergo this must be done"). This does not, of course, mean that we cannot denounce; however, as long as the legitimate "pull" of opposing opinions is not respected (as Pinter does in his art, but not in much of his overtly political work), our denuciations automatically lose any persuasive force for that most important part of our audience: those who do not already agree with us. In such circumstances, the possibility for conversation - based upon a genuine recognition of the force of both sides of an argument - is lost; and with it much of the hope of achieving what is presumably the goal of our discourse in the first place.

Anyway, like I said, well worth a read. Full text is available here.

The US policy of extraordinary rendition

No-one who watches the news can have failed to have noticed the growing discontent in Europe over the US policy of extraodinary rendition of terrorist suspects, the allegations of secret CIA "black hole" prisons in Eastern Europe, and the suggestion that these mean that the US is acquiescing in, committing, and implicating other European Governments in acts of torture. Secretary of State Rice's visit to Europe has been dominated by these claims, particularly in her first meeting with Angela Merkel, the new German Chancellor. This was difficult as the US has admitted an "error" in kidnapping a German citizen in Macedonia and imprisoning him for five months without trial in Afghanistan (incidentally, Merkel has promised a parliamentary enquiry into claims that her Predecessor, Schroder, knew of this but agreed not to make it public). This is exactly the sort of "error", of course, that procedural rights seek to make impossible; and it is these rights, in turn, that the policy of rendition seeks to bypass. Throughout her tour, however, Rice has been evasive and ambiguous on the existence of secret prisons and on the treatment of prisoners, repeating only that the US does not resort to torture.

The Washington Post today, however, notes that she has "clarified" this position: The United States' obligations under the U.N. Convention against Torture - which Bush has long claimed (dubiously in my view) apply only within the territorial boundaries of the US - extend "as a matter of policy" to "U.S. personnel wherever they are, whether they are in the United States or outside of the United States". This is very vague - no doubt deliberately so: is it US policy to extned the legal obligations to its officials acting outside the boundaries of the state? Or are those obligations - legally binding on domestic officials - to be followed as a matter of policy when interrogating suspects outwith the US? Again, here, Rice seems to be returning to her "trust us" theme of the beginning of her European Tour. Given, however, that the government has admitted to a policy of extraordinary rendition in order to remove suspects from the protections afforded by US law, and coupled with the fact that the vice-president is currently making a major effort to have the CIA exempted from Senator McCain's proposed bill to outlaw torture, cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment by all US officials everywhere, the Bush administration cannot really be surprised if many worldwide put two and two together, even if they do (and this seems unlikely) come up with five.

*UPDATE* Peggy McGuinnes over at Opinio Juris has an posted an interesting blog on this subject, well worth a read.

Berlusconi Kidnapped...

...in a movie.

Cinema sees the end of Berlusconi. For an amusing example, have a look at this movie script here.

It sounds like a funny idea. Not surprisingly, in Italy the movie does not have a distributor... of course, they fear the reaction of the Prime Minister. You see, this is yet another case how a conflict of interests can affect a society.

Some Italians are still reluctant to acknowledge the perverse effects of a situation of extreme conflict of interests: wake up!

After the riots in France: By Estelle Carrelet de Loisy

Estelle Carrelet de Loisy is Researcher at the Stability pact for South Eastern Europe in Brussels. She is also a Political Scientist and European Lawyer, working on Organised Crime fighting issues.

Abstract: No European should fear anything any more apart from the French government. The new generation of sons of the French suburbs is testing ways to express themselves publicly. Since teenagers burning cars in order to raise awareness about their overall poverty situation today seems not to lead to constructive governmental measures; perhaps tomorrow some young adults will organize themselves in lobbies, associations, political parties to represent their interest at the decision-making level. It is the voice of the street expressing its social integration’s malaise that needs to finally seriously be addressed now by the State.

The riots happening in the French suburbs of big cities late October and early November have raised worries that violence could spread throughout Europe. Even our transatlantic neighbors were alarmed about these “affected area”. If ones can understand these prudent foreign measures towards uncontrolled violence; however every French citizen had the feeling of a strong exaggerated perception from outside. Naturally, the state of emergency laws was voted in France for 12 days, allowing a period of stronger State’s and police control, specific powers to the government, however, implemented into repressive measures only. But any French citizens will also recognise that the riots were nothing new and nothing really surprising.

The last straw that broke the camel’s back

The situation is nothing new for France, just the explosion of a latent situation lasting since at least 20 years. No French government from the right or the left wing had had until now the courage to face this well-known upcoming and sensible issue of the insufficient integration and the daily discrimination of sons of immigrants and suburbs teenagers. There is clear discrimination and latent racism, by job searching, etc.

As Sophie mentioned in her article, France has at least chosen to try to assimilate its immigrated population, which is not the case of all other EU countries’ immigration policy. These unsuccessful efforts towards an assimilation policy were indeed the decision of a “marriage with the country” for the best and also for the worst. The actual French government is “paying the bill” of 20 years of absence of real immigrant’s integration policy at the French governmental level. And despite of its present official efforts and laud measures; it still tries to avoid balancing this bill.

“They are so blinded that they even could burn the car of their own uncle”

During the last two decades there were about 10 cars per month burned in the French suburbs; these last weeks they were about 500 per days in all different big cities’ suburbs together. The fact that this violence conjointly took place in different suburbs all over France is most probably because, these suburbs of big French cities do all have the same characteristics. Therefore, the rioters developed either a spontaneous solidarity or more probably a competition’s “game” in raising media attention by spectacular actions. These suburbs were quickly built in the 60's and 70's to face the lack of habitat for the migrating labor forces. These cheap skyscrapers’ quarters have become today grey concrete ghettos inhabited by people facing all the same economical, cultural, intellectual and human poverty’s problems in whatever city. The persons acting in the French suburbs these last weeks were mostly adolescents, at the age of their identity crisis, living and going to school in these ghettos only, without any garden to relax, sport place to expense energy and without space and noise isolation in the apartments to live in peace with their neighbor. Their parents either work hard and are not at home; or are jobless and have lost their authority. These teenagers listen neither to their teacher, nor to their parents, perhaps to their oldest brother. Hopefully is their older brother -and example in life- at university, but most probably he has already been in jail or is known from the next police office. But finally their request is towards the society and the State, because they are desperate. For the future, they are seeing no perspective of professional integration, neither in France nor in the country of origin of their parents or grandparents. They have the feeling to stay foreign everywhere. They are mostly from the second or third generation of immigrants now, but differ from the Italian, Spanish, Polish immigration waves since they most of the time coming from less developed countries, with very different cultural and social organization, and with a difficult “hate-love” historical link to France, since they come from former colonial territories. As Sophie mentioned, the nihilist destructive component of the riots is shocking and fundamental at the same time.

The “enemy” is not so easy to identify

At the difference of Raphaël’s article, I realistically keep focusing on the fact that the disadvantaged suburbs inhabitants mostly are kids of recent or old immigrants from former colonies of Muslim culture. The cultural aspect of the families plays a role for understanding these kids’ loss of values; especially in patriarchal family structure when the father has lost authority and honor, because of the humiliation of his treatment as a migrant in a not welcoming country a few decades ago and is jobless today. However, despite of the actual tendency trying to consider any random violence towards citizens as a conspiring Islamic terrorist act, no link should be made between the violent riots and the Muslim religion. Contrarily to those tempted by simplifying problems; complex issues need nuanced answers. In order to avoid any confusion, one should take into account that these events haven’t been declared as neither organized, nor have anything to deal with terrorism or Islamic waves. There has been so far nor recognized or identified political party behind these riots, nor NGO, or religious slogan. The French Government liaising regularly with the head of the French Council for the Muslim Religion has requested an official declaration, that he made, asking to all young Muslims living in France to keep quiet. Teenagers using modern means of communication, contact each other by mobile phone for spontaneous action in order to kill boredom.

Populist provocative slogans for an ambitious political man

The attitude of the ambitious Mr. Nicolas Sarkozy, French Minister of Interior, was too charged of political calculations to be good. He has to a certain extent a part of responsibility in the increase of the intensity and the length of the riots. His respectless public slogans addressed to the media on the issue could only further provoke the rioter’s anger and worsen the situation. He kept on with his slogan even when the situation was really “hot”, increasing the teenagers’ reactions. These slogan never ever had the aim to mean at least the 1958 critical French-Algerian slogan: “I have understood you”, or “I am listening to your distress”. Mr. Sarkozy’s public declarations were aimed to the right to extreme right French electorate that brought in 2002 the negationist, revisionist, and recognized racist French candidate, Mr. Le Pen at the second round of the last presidential elections. There is a dishonoring latent racism in France looking for a less stigmatized and more acceptable public figure to give it respectability. Mr. Sarkozy knows it and uses the opportunity of these riots to try to come up as “the” man having everything under control. But in what direction are the governmental actions now going? They all seem to go in a repressive ways in order to diminishing violence but no fundamental action to avoid future recidivism seems again to be taken by the actual government.

From the burning solidarity to the organized citizen voice

France is a country, since the 1789 Revolution, which has always expressed his discontentment with its people going on the street to protest. Its new generation of sons from the suburbs has finally adopted a similar way of expressing themselves. Should it be seen as a first step into integration towards the French system?! There are some similarities between today's riots and the 1871 Commune de Paris where the hand-workers stroked through the streets of the capitals and built barricades to ask for better rights so well described by Victor Hugo. However, in France, the momentary incapacity that the State had to take control over the situation and the lack of understanding towards a part of its population is the expression of a failed integration system. It is also an urban problem, specific to the crazy inflation of the housing market in the capital of the French centralistic State, where most of the economic activity is concentrated in big cities.

Sustainable reforms should prevent integration malaise

It seems that the French government is today still trying to fight immigration from outside, or sending back any illegal migrants, where the actual problem is much more the situation of the migrants, sons and grand-sons of migrants within the country. The aim is to prevent from outside but not from inside. However the government, trying to find problems from outside should recognize that the problems are inside. Not only repression but also prevention. The most sustainable way is to prevent from inside. The actual governmental measures such as throwing people out of the country, trying to strengthen the control of “white marriages”, forbidding some rap music are short-term measures with broad populist resonance. However, these punctual measures do not solve the much more fundamental problems such as the failed social and economical integration; as well as the urban lack of humanity of some quarters in France.

The government should take the issue of absence of perspective for its youth seriously and from the roots, not only superficially. Else there are risks of recuperation of this disoriented young people by other less recommendable acting organization. France, be aware, these are only short-term projects proposed now, no sustainable, long-term reforms and measures for solving the problems of the young people’s lack of perspective in the French suburbs. Some efforts are made towards more long-term efforts and long-term awareness raising: by the media, by some politicians too, and these are the ones that should be encouraged. If nothing sustainable is done, it will be again just a matter of time until the problem occurs again.

An Interesting Conference in 2006

2006 is the anniversary of John Stuart Mill, he will be 200 years old!

To celebrate this event, the society for Utilitarian Studies organizes the JS MILL BICENTENNIAL CONFERENCE, to be held in University College London from 5 to 7 April, 2006.

Ode to a Leader

The Leader (anonymous)

Patient and steady with all he must bear,
Ready to meet every challenge with care,
Easy in manner, yet solid as steel,
Strong in his faith, refreshingly real.
Isn't afraid to propose what is bold,
Doesn't conform to the usual mould,
Eyes that have foresight, for hindsight won't do,
Never backs down when he sees what is true,
Tells it all straight, and means it all too.
Going forward and knowing he's right,
Even when doubted for why he would fight,
Over and over he makes his case clear,
Reaching to touch the ones who won't hear.
Growing in strength he won't be unnerved,
Ever assuring he'll stand by his word.
Wanting the world to join his firm stand,
Bracing for war, but praying for peace,
Using his power so evil will cease,
So much a leader and worthy of trust,
Here stands a man who will do what he must.

The inclusion of this poem in a textbook for teaching 16 year-old Pakistani schoolchildren English has led to the book being withdrawn by the Pakistani Government. The poem was, apparently, taken from the internet without much analysis, and included as an ode to an abstract ideal of leadership. It didn't take long, however, for the press to realise what the first letter of each line spelled out; and Musharraf's critics have siezed upon it as further proof that his regime is in the pocket of the US.

Embarrassed government officials have, apparently, acknowledged that the poem was uncritically lifted from the web, and, stressing that there was no actual intention to glorfy the character of George Bush, have ordered that the textbok be withdrawn. As the Independent notes, however, although it seems unlikely that an ode to Bush would have been deliberately included, it is even less plausible that such painfully clumsy verse could have been meant to teach foreign students the correct or poetic use of the English language. "Even when doubted for why he would fight"? Yoda may have been strong with the force, but he could never have been a poet...

Beckett backs compulsory targets for climate change

I noted in a post a while back that the UK Environment Secretary, Margaret Beckett, had suggested that, given the apparent failure of Kyoto - in particular as regards the US - to deliver the necessary cuts in carbon dioxide emissions to tackle global warming, the UK was prepared to support a deal that would propose voluntary, rather than legally binding, targets for such cuts. Tony Blair had also been making noises in this regard. They seem, however, to have rethought this strategy, judging from Beckett's comments in Montreal this week:

Without mechanisms in the form of compulsory action, such as targets to cut emissions, existing and new technologies will never be rolled out on the scale we need. Voluntary measures can be helpful, but compulsory action is a surer way of delivering results.

This is, I think, to be welcomed. As I argued previously, even if there is only very little hope for the sucess of compulsory targets, there seem to be even fewer grounds for optimism in terms of voluntary ones. Most important, however, may be what this change of heart implies: that the UK has given up on attempting to bring the US on board at Montreal by watering down any agreement, and is instead pushing to commit willing countries to a more ambitious project. If so, this is again to be applauded: too many promising international initiatives have been weakened in ultimately futile attempts to bring the reticent superpower on board. We need look no further than the ICC for an example of this.

Cameron wins Tory leadership

David Cameron has just been elected new leader of the Conservative Party, with a comfortable 68%-32% margin over his competitor, and one-time favourite, David Davies. Cameron may seem surprisingly young at the age of 39 (and contrasts of that sort have already been drawn with the man viewed as his real opponent, Gordon Brown); however, since Blair's victory in 1997 - indeed, since John Major took over from Margaret Thatcher in 1990, the Conservative Party has suffered from a succession of fairly bland, unremarkable, and mostly old-school right-wingers at its head. John Major was unable to keep his government together in the face of Blair's onslaught; and subsequent leaders such as William Hague, Ian Duncan Smith and Michael Howard have spectacularly failed to make any real impression (even Blairs much reduced majority is more down to his actions in Iraq than any real resurgence in the Tories). At the same time, there have been contenders who many felt could make the Tories a force again, and who had the necessary charisma to make the party appealing beyond its core vote - Heseltine, Clarke and (the later) Portillo fall under this category. Often, it has been the Conservative's odd policy of allowing grass-roots volunteers the final say in a run-off between two candidates that has led to these results, and has meant that the party has remained confined to its aging, right-wing base. It is interesting to note that the party attempted, and failed, to change this system this time around.

No matter. This time, the Party has made the more courageous choice. Davies was far more in the Hague/Duncan Smith/Howard mould than his competitor. The Tory volunteers have seen the success that Blair has had, and have gone for someone more obviously in his image. Cameron's first speech ended a few minutes ago with a plea for compassionate and inclusive conservatism; and an invitation for all those who believe in honest, dynamic politics, individual choice and social justice to join him and his party.

We have, of course, heard all of this before. About four times since 1990. Cameron does, however, feel a bit different. He might just manage to revitalise the party, and broaden its core support. On the other hand, he is a significant risk; he has rocketed to power almost from nowhere (he has only been an MP since 2001), and he has now to face some formidable, and experienced, politicians in Blair and, presumably, Brown. It remains to be seen whether he will be able to hold his own in these circumstance, or whether he has just been handed the classic hospital pass. And will he seek to minimise this by surrounding himself with the Tory "old guard", or will he begin his reformation of the Party immediately, from the top down?

The next major point of interest, then, will be to see who he appoints to his shadow cabinet, and where...

...But Cameron Will Not win the Elections

David Cameron has been elected as the Head of the conservatives in the UK.

David, who's only 39, will have to face a very big hurdle: winning against labour, one of the most succesfull parties of UK history.

The election was organised through postal ballot: more or less 200.000 Tory members voted. So the first consideration is: only 200.000? It must not be true, is it?
It is and this tells a lot about the 'health' of british politics. (To have a term of comparison, Romano Prodi in Italy has been elected by 6 million voters; participation is still an important element of modern politics).

The second question is: can he win? The answer is simple: NO!
The reason is that David Cameron does not have a genuine political vision for the UK. Moreover, he doesn't have a clue about the concrete policy-implications of his view.

His manifesto is simple: he wants a modern compassionate conservative Britain. Basically, nothing new under the sun. Cameron borrows a familiar American outlook. It is unclear whether british people will be persuaded by this outlook. Especially now that the Compassionate Conservative in the US are facing troubles due to the change of public opinion on the war of Iraq.

As far as policies are concerned, Cameron has taken since long the pragmatic stance. He does not want to detail them now. He will do so in the future. But if he does not have a sound, genuine, vision of where the UK should be and why, then policies will only reflect short term concerns that are not going to carry him very far away.

Euan suggest in the post above that Cameron was the more corageous choice. Maybe. But it is the conservative party as a whole which has a long way to go. And it is unlikely that Cameron will lead the party far enough to convince British people that the moment has come to switch to conservativism.

Public Opinion and Iraq Part 2

According to the New York Times President Bush has a new advisor on Iraq and a new public relations strategy. Peter Feaver is a Duke University political scientist recruited to advise the White House on public opinion vis-à-vis the Iraq war. The President needs new advice because public opinion has turned against the war. The latest Newsweek poll shows that only about 30 percent of the population supports the President’s Iraq policy. Feaver argues that Americans will support a war with high casualties as long as they believe that the war will succeed ultimately. Judging from his latest effort to rally public opinion last week during a speech at the Naval Academy, the President has embraced this thesis wholeheartedly. Bush used the word “victory” 15 times in his address while standing on a stage papered with “Plan for Victory” signs. Bush’s effort to reverse the public’s opposition to the war indicates his belief that a change in presentation, rather than policy, is the antidote to weak public support and that public opinion on Iraq is malleable. I will be interested to see Dr. Feaver’s research on the subject (he has an article appearing soon in International Security) because his thesis seems counterintuitive and runs counter to other recent scholarship on the subject (eg. John Mueller and Richard C. Eichenberg argue that public opinion is unlikely to rebound regardless of the message). Rather than focusing on an eventual victory, it seems more likely that Americans are motivated by the more immediate concern of the importance of the war being fought. That is, are American troops dying in a cause vital to American national security? Public opinion remained, on balance, supportive in the Civil and Second World Wars because the public judged (or was convinced by Presidents Lincoln and Roosevelt, depending on your interpretation of the nature of public opinion) that the fight was an essential one. This, it seems to me, explains weak public support on Iraq. With no weapons of mass destruction and a growing perception that the White House prevaricated in presenting its argument for war, Americans apparently doubt that the quest for a “democratic” Iraq is worth the sacrifice.

Gay Marriage in the UK

From Today, December 5 2005, gay marriages are allowed in the UK. Thus, the labour party follows the spanish example.

Here is the Civil Partnership Act 2004.

More on this later on.

Srebrenica: The ICTY decision

Reggarding the Srebrenica massacre Johnstone says,

War crimes ? The Serbs themselves do not deny that crimes were committed. Part of a plan of genocide ? For this there is no evidence whatsoever.

In Prosecutor v. Krstić (International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia case), a landmark ruling that put to rest any doubts about the legal character of the massacre, the Appeals Chamber of the International Criminal Tribunal for Former Yugoslavia unanimously ruled that it was an act of genocide. In this judgment one can see that concerning the numbers of victims ICTY has very little doubt, “The depravity, brutality and cruelty with which the Bosnian Serb Army (“VRS”) treated the innocent inhabitants of the safe area are now well known and documented. Bosnian women, children and elderly were removed from the enclave, and between 7,000 – 8,000 Bosnian Muslim men were systematically murdered.”

Johnstone is denying the findings of this ad hoc international criminal court and it is in this sense that her writing is similar to Irving’s, at least until his own trial he was dennying the Nuernberg decision. The interpretations of history of both authors go against the recognized and final legal facts, legal interpretations of history.

A little more on Johnstone and Srebrencia

A quick addendum to my post below on Srebrenica and the western left, with another example of some of the scholarship I was describing. Oliver Kamm has a couple of pieces on this on his blog (thanks to Renegade Eye for the link), dealing more directly with Chomsky's complaint to the Guardian than with Johnstone's work itself; he does mention the latter, however, and it is the manner in which he does so that is of interest to me here.

Kamm again begins by using the David Irving Holocaust denial example, noting his u-turn at his trial, when he admitted that there was a systematic campaign of mass killings against the Jews. Kamm concludes that "even the world’s most ostentatious denier of the greatest crime in modern history does not deny a deliberate programme of mass killings". Thus he argues that it is entirely consistent to label Johnstone an atrocity-denier, even though she acknowledges that atrocities did take place.

The next crucial step in the argument, after a quite deliberate setting of the scene by invocation of Irving and the Holocaust, is to direct our attention to what needs answered: "The relevant question in the case of Diana Johnstone’s writings is whether she systematically downplays the nature and extent of Serb atrocities in Bosnia". Kamm then concludes that "the evidence is clear" that she does: this evidence being the fact, undeniable, that Johnstone suggests that the massacres may well have been far below the number officially recognised.

I should make clear at this point that Kamm, to his credit, often does maintain a balanced tone, avoiding the shrill excesses of the worst kind of writing of this sort that i criticised below. He does, however, quote approvingly from the Hoare piece below, and is a signatory of the Henry Jackson Society (he also points out, helpfully, something that I hadn't bothered to find out: that Hoare is a specialist in Balkan history, and former investigator for the ICTY. This lends particular weight to his criticism of Johnstone as someone who had done no original research in Bosnia, no interviews or other groundwork, etc.; it also makes more confusing his need to demonise Johnstone instead of calmly refuting her claims). His short piece, however, does provide us with a wonderful example of petitio principii - question begging - viewed by Chaim Perelman, amongst others, as the "gravest error" of argumentative technique.

The crucial step in this is the second one: does Johnstone, in her writing, downplay the nature and extent of the Serb atrocities? Johnstone's writing, however, can only be viewed as a "downplaying" if the generally accepted figures are accepted by us as true. Given that it is precisely Johnstone's goal to challenge these figures, we can easily see how Kamm's argument begs that question. In essence, the unspoken minor premise of that leads to his conclusion - that the accepted figures on the Serb atrocities are true - is exactly the point in issue in Johnstone's work. This is not, of course, to suggest that Johnstone's points cannot be refuted; only that this is not a particularly honest, or effective, way of doing so.

We can also readily see here the effect of Kamm's choice of backdrop. His introduction of Johnstone's work to us in connection with Irving's colours very heavily the manner in which we are inclined to view the former, if we do not read reflectively. That Irving is a deeply unpleasant man, hero of the far right, and (most importantly) flying in the face of massively strong evidence sets the scene in terms of which we are to understand Johnstone's claims, and makes us accept much more readily the question-begging coup de grace when it comes. Irving's work has, however, (I assume) been refuted point-by-point, on the evidence he presents in support of his argument - if it has not, this task is urgent. Johnstone's work, here as elsewhere, is not accorded the same scrutiny, but is instead refuted by association.

The trouble with association is that it is always a matter of choice. And the choice here does exactly the same job as the question Kamm asks of Johnstone: it presumes (this time not explicitly, but by implication) that what happened at Srebrenica and elsewhere has been established beyond all reasonable doubt. The simple fact, however, is that we cannot begin with that statement as axiomatic and then proceed to a mature and serious interrogation of Johnstone's claims.

We can also, with some ease, imagine other situations that could have been used for a backdrop in this argument, creating by association a quite different set of prejudices in the mind of the unreflective reader - although perhaps none quite as extreme, and powerful, as that of Irving and Holocaust denial. David Chandler, for example, in his book From Kosovo to Kabul (pp. 29-30), notes that during the Biafra's attempt to secede from Nigeria in the late 1960s, the Biafran government ensured the support of the international community, and international aid agencies in particular, with claims of genocide and "thousands dying daily". Oxfam's official history now records that "they fell for it, hook, line and sinker".

My intention with the last example is not, of course, to suggest that Srebrenica and the Biafran war are in any way comparable; only to illustrate that we can easily find examples with which to associate any cause, and which create question-begging prejudices in the mind of the reader. The real question to be asked of Johnstone's work is not, therefore, "does she downplay the massacres?", but rather "does the evidence she adduces support her claims, and is it sufficient to present a serious challenge to the generally accepted accounts of what transpired?" Such questions, however, require an engagement with Johnstone's work in considerably better faith than many critics seem inclined to show.

Winter Olympics and Terrorism

Winter Olympics 2006 are hosted by Turin, Italy.

This could be a launching pad for a new Italian Renaissance, after the apocaliptical announcements of decline coming from the Economist. After all, we are pretty good at Rinascimento or Risorgimento, aren't we?

Don't forget also that Italy as a country may be in bad shape economically, but some regions are the best performers in the world. This is the case of Lombardy (20 million people), and of Piedmont (9 million people), the very region of Turin.

Unfortunately, optimism should not fly too high, as another problem is lurking behind Olympics: the ghost of terrorism.

As said many times before in this blog, Italy is one of the main targets for international terrorism. The fact that an international event such as Winter Olympics is taking place just before the national elections is a good source of fear and trouble.

As a result, the Italian government has already taken special measures to enhance security. Vinca il Migliore.

Iraq in Historical Context

Critics of America’s intervention in Iraq have generally pointed to Vietnam as the historical guide to what will happen when things go wrong. This is understandable given the Vietnam War’s relative proximity in American memory. Other, historically literate commentators have offered America’s occupation of the Philippines after the 1898 Spanish-American War as a more relevant example of the burdens of imperialism. President Bush himself used the Philippines analogy in 2003 as an example of occupation that led to a democratic government. Prior to the invasion, minus the eventual happy ending, I too would have preferred the Filipino analogy. However, as America’ presence in Iraq continues, the Vietnam War comparison gains relevance. Democrats are calling for a gradual withdrawal of American troops regardless of the “facts on the ground.” Despite pledges to stay as long as necessary, the Bush administration is laying the groundwork for doing just this and speaking of turning the fighting over to Iraqi soldiers. As justification for this transfer the Bush administration is offering an avalanche of “metrics,” i.e. statistics showing that the war is being won. Almost every day the Pentagon releases numbers for insurgents killed in the latest offensive and optimistic estimates for the number of Iraqi soldiers ready to fight independent of American support. This is all reminiscent of America’s agonizing extrication from Vietnam. Democrat calls for withdrawal are understandable but, as the Washington Post pointed out today, the Bush administration’s “metrics” strain credulity. Iraq’s government, faced with major sectarian problems and a vigorous insurgency, is not ready to stand alone and needs American troops. Yet America’s invasion and occupation was the original cause of, and continues to fuel, the insurgency. There is probably no answer to this dilemma, as there was no answer to the problem of America’s involvement in Vietnam. As with Vietnam, the ending will likely be painful for the United States but devastating for the country it leaves behind.

Blair backtracks (a bit) on EU budget rebate

Tony Blair, currently on a tour of new EU member states in an attempt to resolve the deadlock over the EU budget - for which many feel he has primary responsibility, both as the UK is the current president of the union, and as its budget rebate is one of the major sticking points - has indicated his willingness to either accept a cut in the rebate, or contribute more to EU funds.

These might seem essentially the same thing. Not so, however; the issue of the budget rebate, won by Margaret Thatcher, is something of a hot potato in British domestic policies; and Blair has repeatedly stated that he will not give it up without reform to the Common Agricultural Policy. He has not, of course, offered to give it up entirely, but it will be difficult to prevent opponents from portraying this as a u-turn.

The offer comes as part of a proposed deal which would also see aid to the 10 accession countries cut by something like 10%; small wonder, then, that Blair has had to make a significant concession. The cuts are not, perhaps, as draconian as first appears - the conditions attached to this funding are so strict that, in practice, significant amounts of the money is never spent (Poland, for example, has thus far been able to spend only 4.3% of its allocated funds for 2004-2006). Blair is proposing to loosen up the criteria for accessing the money at the same time as reducing the amount available; nonetheless, this does not seem to have impressed many of the new member states. Even a spokesman for Barroso, the Commission President, has said that "he has made it very clear that he does not expect the British presidency to take the role of the Sheriff of Nottingham, taking from the poor to give to the rich".

I find it difficult not to feel a little sorry for Blair on this one; that both the rebate and the CAP need serious rethinking seems to be generally accepted (almost everywhere but France); his argument, however, that they are "inextricably linked" seems to have considerably less adherents. The rebate seems an easier target at the moment than does the CAP; this, coupled with the fact that the UK currently holds the presidency and thus the responsibility for finding agreement on the budget, has forced his hand. It'll be interesting to see just how far he is prepared to go; and how what he has already conceded will go down domestically.

US and EUROPE on counterterrorism: Cooperation or Conflict?

Bobby Chesney on Opinio Juris argues that this is not a good week as far as cooperation between Europe and the US on counterterrorism is concerned. He cites as example of bad cooperation, the decision of an Italian judge based in Milan who denied Seldon Lady, a CIA Agent in Italy, diplomatic protection.

The problem is all in the interpretation of cooperation. One thing is to have an agreement on how to proceed on counterterrorism; another, totally different, thing is to allow US agents to use force and behave illegally on a foreign territory without taking notice of this fact.

The judge in Milan had good evidence of the breach of Italian law committed by the CIA agents. The only possible argument against that decision is to show that the evidence was not sufficient. But to claim that cooperation is not working is just misleading.